Top-25 showdown on tap in Tallahassee

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/23/2012 - Tallahassee, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The first place picture in the Atlantic Coast Conference will get a little clearer tonight as the fifth-ranked Duke Blue Devils head to the Donald L. Tucker Center to square off with the 15th- ranked Florida State Seminoles in what will send one team into third place and keep the other tied for the top spot in the league standings.

This will be the second encounter between Duke and the Seminoles this season and the 38th meeting in history. Although the Blue Devils hold a 30-7 lead in the all-time series, Florida State has all the momentum after its dramatic 76-73 victory in their last battle, which took place on Jan. 21st last month at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Michael Snaer made national headlines in the first bout by hitting a game-winning three-pointer as time expired to snap Duke's 64-game home winning streak against unranked opponents. Since the incident, Florida State has gained a little respect and pushed its way into the top 25.

Mike Krzyzewski's Blue Devils won their fourth in a row on Sunday as they bested the Boston College Eagles 75-50 in Chestnut Hill. The victory made Duke 23-4 overall and 10-2 in ACC play. They are tied with Florida State and are just a half game behind North Carolina (11-2). The Blue Devils put together a superb rebounding effort against Boston College, as they won the battle of the boards 45-21 to push towards the lopsided victory. Duke has one of the best offenses in the nation, as it is netting 79.5 ppg while allowing opponents to average 68.6 ppg.

Duke has one of the most dynamic backcourts in the nation as Seth Curry and Austin Rivers are virtually impossible to contain. With Rivers's ability to penetrate and finish and Curry's lights out three-point shooting, the Blue Devils kill opponents with stellar guard play. The duo combined to score 34 points in the recent win over Boston College. Ryan Kelly and Mason Plumlee provide frontcourt balance for Duke. Plumlee is near a double-double average as he is scoring 11.2 points and grabbing 9.7 boards per game.

Leonard Hamilton has to be a serious COY candidate after leading FSU to a 19-7 overall record. The Seminoles kept pace in the ACC race by defeating NC State 76-62 to improve to 10-2 in league action on Saturday. FSU shot 49.1 percent from the floor and converted 18-of-21 from the charity stripe to past the Wolfpack, while holding NC State to a paltry 29.3 percent shooting in the contest. The Seminoles have been great on both ends of the floor all season as they are netting 70.0 ppg while limiting opponents to 60.8 ppg.

The Seminoles are led by Snaer, the man who buried Duke earlier this season. The junior shooting guard leads the team with 13.5 ppg, and has since hit another game-winning shot as he hit a go-ahead three-pointer with seconds remaining to give FSU a 48-47 victory over Virginia Tech on Feb. 16th. Bernard James, Okara White, and Bernard Gibson all play vital roles for FSU as well. James is grabbing 8.2 boards per game. Deividas Dulkys, although quiet as of late, can be dangerous as he showed earlier this season with a 32-point outing on a remarkable 12-of-14 shooting performance against North Carolina.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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